Prospects for the Doha Round

The Issue

The indefinite suspension of the Doha Round of global trade negotiations creates significant risks for developing countries, for world trade, and for the World Trade Organization (WTO). Welfare gains from new WTO reforms will be forgone. The WTO will begin a slow descent into oblivion, severely hurting the weakest members, who benefit most from a strong system based on multilateral rules. Leading trading nations will refocus their negotiating efforts on bilateral and regional trade agreements, and the number of such initiatives will proliferate. Such pacts could severely impair developing countries’ trade. In the past, most free trade agreements (FTAs) involved deals among developing countries or between major developed and developing countries. The Doha breakdown will change that calculus, reinvigorating bilateral negotiations among the major trading nations; likely candidates include US-Japan, US-Korea, and a transatlantic FTA. The breakdown of trade talks will also generate more protectionism, especially as the world economy slows and global trade imbalances continue to rise. Financial markets will become more unstable as international economic cooperation breaks down further. Finally, developing countries, particularly the least developed, will no longer be able to use the carrot and stick of multilateral trade negotiations to catalyze their own domestic economic reforms.

Essential Reading from the Institute

Working Paper 09-6: What's on the Table? The Doha Round as of August 2009 [pdf]
by Matthew Adler, Peterson Institute for International Economics
and Claire Brunel, Peterson Institute for International Economics
and Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Peterson Institute for International Economics
and Jeffrey J. Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics
August 2009

Op-ed: A 5-Step Program for Doha Rehabilitation: Rational Expectations about the Doha Round Negotiations
by Jeffrey J. Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Op-ed in VoxEU.org
July 18, 2008

Working Paper 08-2: Currency Undervaluation and Sovereign Wealth Funds: A New Role for the World Trade Organization [pdf]
by Aaditya Mattoo, The World Bank
and Arvind Subramanian, Peterson Institute for International Economics
January 2008

Policy Brief 06-7: Completing the Doha Round [pdf]
by Jeffrey J. Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics
October 2006

Book: Delivering on Doha: Farm Trade and the Poor
by Kimberly Ann Elliott
July 2006

Op-ed: Plan B for World Trade: Go Regional
by C. Fred Bergsten, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Op-ed in the Financial Times
August 16, 2006

Article: Rescuing the Doha Round [pdf]
by C. Fred Bergsten, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Article in Foreign Affairs, WTO Special Edition
December 2005

Policy Brief 06-5: Can Doha Still Deliver on the Development Agenda? [pdf]
by Kimberly Ann Elliott, Peterson Institute for International Economics
June 2006

Policy Brief 06-2: The Doha Round after Hong Kong [pdf]
by Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Peterson Institute for International Economics
and Jeffrey J. Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics
February 2006

Op-ed: End the Lie, Rejoice in Cheap Imports
by Edward M. Graham, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Op-ed in the Financial Times
July 21, 2006

Paper: Reviving the Doha Round
by Jeffrey J. Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics
May 2004

Paper: Achieving a Grand Bargain in the Doha Round [pdf]
by William R. Cline, Peterson Institute for International Economics
CGD/IIE Brief
December 2005

Article: Unlocking the Benefits of World Trade
by Jeffrey J. Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Special report in The Economist
US Edition
November 1, 2003

Book: WTO after Seattle
edited by Jeffrey J. Schott
July 2000

Policy Brief 03-8: More Pain, More Gain: Politics and Economics of Eliminating Tariffs [pdf]
by Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Peterson Institute for International Economics
and Ben Goodrich, Peterson Institute for International Economics
June 2003

Policy Brief 00-2: Decision-Making in the WTO
by Jeffrey J. Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics
and Jayashree Watal, Peterson Institute for International Economics
March 2000

Op-ed: A Competitive Approach to Free Trade
by C. Fred Bergsten, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Op-ed in the Financial Times
December 4, 2002

Article: A Renaissance for United States Trade Policy?
by C. Fred Bergsten, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Article in Foreign Affairs
November-December 2002