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RealTime Economic Issues Watch Ukraine's Bond Restructuring: Surgery, Conspiracy, and Campaign
Anna Gelpern — April 17, 2015
Debt restructuring is the second largest source of outside financing for Ukraine's new International Monetary Fund (IMF) program [pdf]. The Fund itself brings $17.5 billion over four ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Russia's Bond: It's Official! (... and Private ... and Anything Else It Wants to Be ...)
Anna Gelpern — April 17, 2015
Ukraine's bond restructuring talks are in high gear, and, as ever, Russia is the trouble du jour. Not only is it threatening to hold out in the bond deal and take Ukraine to arbitration, Russia also seems ...

News Release New Book on Ukraine Calls for Sweeping Political, Economic, and Government Reforms
April 17, 2015
WASHINGTON—Ukraine, facing an existential crisis after years of political, economic, and military turmoil, must undertake sweeping reforms to achieve prosperity and independence, according to a new book by Anders Åslund published by th ...

North Korea: Witness to Transformation Women's March for Peace Update
Stephan Haggard — April 17, 2015
In an earlier post, I reported on the Women's Walk for Peace, involving Gloria Steinem, Nobel laureate Mairead Maguire and a slew of prominent women activists. I argued it could make good political theatre, even if vulnerable to North Korean manipulati ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch A Big Step Forward for the US Trade Agenda
Jeffrey J. Schott — April 16, 2015
Eight years after the expiration of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), congressional leaders finally tabled a new bill that could expedite the conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement between the United States and 11 other countries.

Op-ed Brazil's Investment: A Maze in One's Own Navel
Monica de Bolle — April 16, 2015
Fears of losing market share and "selling the country to foreigners" still dominate Brazil's national debate. It is time to stop navel gazing and take advantage of the unique opportunities that free trade agreements present.

China Economic Watch Real Value of China’s FX Reserves is Essentially Flat
Sean Miner — April 16, 2015
There has been a lot of debate lately about China’s foreign exchange reserves, whether the People’s Bank of China has been intervening, and in which direction.  It appears from the data available that the PBoC has done little or no intervening in the exchange market.  Data released this week shows t ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Diversity among Advanced Economies in Rebounding from Crisis
Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky — April 15, 2015
Newly released projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook highlight the diversity of experiences among advanced economies in rebounding from the crisis. Although most economies (including all economies shown in this blog post) are projected to return ...

Working Paper 15-8 Testing the Modigliani-Miller Theorem of Capital Structure Irrelevance for Banks [pdf]
William R. Cline — April 13, 2015
William R. Cline examines the empirical evidence on the Modigliani-Miller capital structure irrelevance proposition as applied to the banking sector. The central question he addresses is whether more highly capitalized banks do indeed enjoy lower costs of equity capital.

Working Paper 15-7 The Future of Worldwide Income Distribution [pdf]
Tomas Hellebrandt and Paolo Mauro — April 13, 2015
Global income inequality will decline further in 2035, largely owing to rapid economic growth in the emerging-market economies, with India, China, and Sub-Saharan Africa reaping the most gains.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Too Much Untapped Potential to Buy into the Secular Stagnation Argument
RealTime Economic Issues Editor — April 10, 2015
Ben Bernanke has joined Lawrence Summers in debating whether the US and other major world economies are in a period of secular stagnation, where a chronic shortfall in ...

Op-ed Brazilian Sclerosis
Monica de Bolle — April 10, 2015
The evidence suggests that Brazilian investment is sclerotic, like European unemployment during the 1980s and 1990s. According to the latest data, Brazilian investment rates over the last 20 years have barely budged from 19 percent of GDP.

Trade and Investment Policy Watch The Summit of the Americas: Can Cuba Help Save the Process?
Barbara Kotschwar — April 8, 2015
The seventh Summit of the Americas convenes on Friday, April 10, 2015. The Summit process, which turns 21 this year, has had its share of growing pains.

China Economic Watch Chart of the Week: Broad-based decline in China’s property market
Kent Troutman — April 7, 2015
Late last month, the People's Bank of China announced a further easing of mortgage requirements. This reflects a growing concern from policymakers and many analysts ...

Op-ed The Rescue of Brazil
Angel Ubide — April 7, 2015
The Brazilian economy has all the characteristics of a country under the tutelage of an IMF program.

RECENT EVENTS

 

Ilan Goldfajn

Latin America: From Recovery to Slowdown

Ilan Goldfajn and Jose De Gregorio, both formerly with the Central Bank of Chile, discuss emerging risks in Latin America.

Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem

Further Steps towards a Thriving Economic and Monetary Union

Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem, discusses how to secure a thriving Economic and Monetary Union.

Anders Aslund

Ukraine: What Went Wrong and How to Fix It

Anders Åslund presents the findings of his latest book on Ukraine, followed by comments from Ukrainian ministers Natalie Jaresko and Aivaras Abromavicius.

Commissioner Margrethe Vestager

Agenda for European Competition Policy

Commissioner Margrethe Vestager lays out her agenda for European competition policy over the next five years.

Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley

Tax Reforms in India: Vision for the Future

Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley discusses the crucial overhaul of India's indirect tax system.

SECULAR STAGNATION



The Case Against Secular Stagnation

Four PIIE experts say that, contrary to the arguments of some experts, the world economy is not afflicted by "secular stagnation," and that significant untapped economic potential in Europe and China combined with better fiscal policies can spur economic growth.

ABOUT OUR SUPPORTERS

Peterson Institute for International Economics Announces New Funding Disclosure Steps [pdf]

A document posted in 2014 gives our Statement of Principles, Facts about Our Funding, and charts and lists indicating funding sources and amounts in 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

TRADE AND INVESTMENT



Benefits to the US Economy in Eight Charts

The benefits to the US economy from cross-border trade and investment are narrated and visualized through eight charts. They focus on the significant growth of two-way trade and investment, higher earnings in export-intensive industries, and the changing nature of trade in a globalized economy.

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