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China Economic Watch China Chart of the Week: Global exports to China have been rising
Jan Zilinsky — September 4, 2015
Last week, we listed G-20 economies and their trade exposure to the Chinese economy. Today, we show how much exports to China have increased in selected regions. Globally, nearly 9% of all exports now flow to China (compared to 6.1% in 2007). Africa ...

North Korea: Witness to Transformation China-DPRK textiles trade: first the good news, then the bad
Marcus Noland — September 4, 2015
As Kevin Stahler observed in an earlier post, bilateral trade between China and North Korea in textiles and apparel has been growing for several years. When Kevin showed me a draft of the post, I questioned how much of this was truly Chinese trade, and ...

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview Why Immigration Is Good for Europe
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — September 3, 2015
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard says that over the long run, the influx of immigrants in Europe will lead to economic growth—and for Germany, the stimulus that many people have long advocated.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch How Russia Is Using Chinese Largesse to Circumvent the West's Sanctions
Simeon Djankov — September 3, 2015
China has been energetically touting the benefits of its New Silk Road initiative, which aims to spend $40 billion a year to link Europe and Asia via roads, rail, and water. The stated goal is to open a whole region—Central and South Asia—to the world. ...

Policy Brief 15-14 Reshoring by US Firms: What Do the Data Say? [pdf]
Lindsay Oldenski — September 3, 2015
Oldenski examines the most recent data on the global operations of US firms and concludes that although some companies have reversed their previous offshoring decisions, there is no evidence of a widespread reshoring trend.

Trade and Investment Policy Watch PIIE Chart: Little Evidence of Reshoring Trend by US Firms
Lindsay Oldenski — September 2, 2015
The reshoring of manufacturing by US firms has been getting a great deal of public attention. Reshoring occurs when firms reverse their offshoring decisions, shifting production back to the United States. But has this become an important trend as many claim?

Trade and Investment Policy Watch Potential US Export Losses if Congress Kills the Nuclear Agreement with Iran
Gary Clyde Hufbauer — September 1, 2015
Congress will soon vote on the diplomatic agreement reached in July 2015 between the five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (the P5+1) and Iran, formally titled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Legislation signed by President Obama in May 2015 gives Congress a vote on US participation in the JCPOA.

Op-ed Why the Fed Should Postpone Rate Hikes
Anders Borg — August 28, 2015
Anders Borg cites reasons for the Fed to postpone interest rate hikes and notes the conclave in Jackson Hole would provide an ideal opportunity for the Fed to signal a shift in its policy stance.

Op-ed The United States Still Runs the World
Simon Johnson — August 28, 2015
While US monetary officials in Jackson Hole consider the global economy, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will move interest rates based almost entirely on its collective read of the US economy. Once again, the rest of the world will react to what the United States does.

China Economic Watch Which countries are most exposed to China?
Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky — August 28, 2015
The recent drop in China’s stock prices has rekindled interest in the economic impact of a possible slowdown in China’s economic growth. China is now the second largest importer worldwide (closely following the United States), international trade is an important channel through which the Chinese eco ...

Op-ed Towards a Europe of Symmetry, Solidarity, and Opportunity
Angel Ubide — August 26, 2015
Europe must decide whether to consolidate the euro as a true monetary union with a federal structure built around three axes: symmetry, solidarity, and opportunity.

Trade and Investment Policy Watch PIIE Chart: Korean currency policies and TPP entry
Jeffrey J. Schott — August 26, 2015
While enforceable currency provisions will not be central to the TPP, exchange rate policies will be closely followed both in the forthcoming congressional ratification of TPP implementing legislation and in the decision whether to approve participation of new countries in the TPP. Korean officials should take heed.

China Economic Watch Nicholas Lardy: False Alarm on a Crisis in China
China Economic Watch Editor — August 26, 2015
Recent economic events in China have created turmoil in the global markets. Many economists believe that China is experiencing a financial and economic meltdown. Nicholas R. Lardy explains in an ...

Op-ed The TPP: Almost There
Jeffrey J. Schott — August 26, 2015
In the US ratification debate over TPP, look for politicians to take aim at the provisions that most affect their constituents.

Op-ed Show Steel and Raise Rates or the Financial System Will Fracture
Avinash D. Persaud — August 25, 2015
Monetary policy cannot just react to the latest inflation data if it is to promote financial stability and sustainable economic growth.

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview China Sneezes, Global Markets Get a Cold
Angel Ubide — August 24, 2015
Angel Ubide says markets are likely to remain in turmoil until economic fundamentals in China, the United States, and emerging markets become clearer.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch A Greek Election that Should Strengthen Tsipras's Hand
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — August 21, 2015
For the third time this year, Greek voters will be going the polls, this time to elect a new Parliament on September 20 in the wake of the €86 billion bailout accord with European creditors and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's resignation. But the most likely outcome for this election will be ...

China Economic Watch Retail Sales Numbers Are Not a Reliable Indicator for Consumption Expenditure
Zixuan Huang and Nicholas Lardy — August 21, 2015
Some skeptics of China's economic data argue that the moderating growth of retail sales shows that private consumption expenditures are weakening. However, retail sales are not a good proxy for private consumption for two reasons. First, as noted i ...


Catherine L. Mann

OECD Study on the Future of Productivity

OECD Chief Economist Catherine L. Mann presents her groundbreaking study on productivity, followed by comments from CEA Chairman Jason Furman.


Has Productivity Outstripped Wage Growth?

Robert Z. Lawrence argues that, contrary to a widespread perception of lagging wage growth, constant dollar labor compensation for all US workers has kept pace with output when appropriately measured from 1970 to 2000, and perhaps to as late as 2008.



Why Immigration Is Good for Europe

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard says that over the long run, the influx of immigrants in Europe will lead to economic growth—and for Germany, the stimulus that many people have long advocated.

China Sneezes, Global Markets Get a Cold

Angel Ubide says markets are likely to remain in turmoil until economic fundamentals in China, the United States, and emerging markets become clearer.

Crisis in Brazil

Monica de Bolle reviews the factors behind the economic turmoil in Brazil, the political corruption scandals, and President Rousseff's reform agenda.

Does China's Currency Decline Portend an Economic Downturn?

Nicholas R. Lardy says that economic indicators suggest that China's growth rate remains stable at 7 percent despite the latest market pessimism.

TPP Talks: Getting to Yes

Jeffrey J. Schott explains why trade negotiators for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are hopeful they can complete a deal by early September, clearing the way for a presidential signoff by Christmas.

Sanctions on Iran: Why They Worked and Why a 'Snapback' May Not Work

Gary Clyde Hufbauer explains that economic sanctions on Iran resulted from complex financial and diplomatic activity by Washington, complicating the challenge should sanctions have to be reimposed.

Will Greece Make It After All?

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and Edwin M. Truman offer cautiously optimistic and cautiously pessimistic views respectively about Greece's prospects for recovery and growth following another bailout.


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