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China Economic Watch Will China finally tackle overcapacity?
Ryan Rutkowski — April 22, 2014
Chinese economic growth for the past decade has been categorized by controls on resource and capital price increases, excessive levels of investment, and overcapacity in certain industrial sectors. Policymakers have been concerned with overcapacity since 2005 yet even after a decade of regulatory in ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch A New ECB Outlook: Part II
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — April 22, 2014
As argued in Part I of this posting, the European Central Bank (ECB) has tiptoed toward a policy of monetary easing but is unlikely to act quickly. Here I discuss what the ECB might do in the second half of 2014, if the inflationary environment ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Can China Achieve Its 7.5 Percent Growth Target?
Li-Gang Liu — April 22, 2014
China announced its first quarter GDP growth in April. The economy slowed to 7.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter of 2014, down from 7.7 percent on the same basis in the fourth quarter of 2013, slightly higher than the market expectation of 7.3 percent. Comparing the first q ...

North Korea: Witness to Transformation “Only Weirdos Take Interest in Legislative Session”
Stephan Haggard — April 22, 2014
North Korea has recently held a series of high-level political meetings: an “enlarged” meeting of the Central Military Commission (CMC, March 17), a Politburo meeting (April 8), which in turn preceded the first session of the 13th Supreme People's Assembly (April 9) following SPA election ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch A New ECB Outlook? Part I
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — April 21, 2014
The European Central Bank (ECB) seems to be tiptoeing toward further easing of monetary policy in the euro area. Inflation has dropped to just 0.5 percent in March and the pressure for action is increasing. During the biannual financial meetings in Washington, the International Monetary Fund ( ...

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview Ukraine Stalemate: Is the Geneva Accord a Dead Letter?
Anders Aslund — April 18, 2014
Anders Åslund says the deal reached by US Secretary of State John Kerry is unenforceable and that Vice President Biden should be prepared to announce new sanctions against Russia in Kiev next week.

China Economic Watch China’s Reserves: Parsing the Recent Data and Rhetoric
Kent Troutman — April 17, 2014
As China’s policy regarding continued intervention in its currency market increasingly appears to be reaching an inflection point, we have been closely following the data over the past months in order to ascertain whether there has been a change in this policy. The initial conclusions from the first ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Putin Needs Victory
Anders Aslund — April 14, 2014
"All we need is victory regardless of the cost." So runs the refrain in a popular old Soviet film, "The Belarusian Railway Station," about World War II veterans. This line probably explains President Vladimir Putin's policy on Ukraine. The latest developments, including the seizure by Russian ...

Working Paper 14-1 Regime Change, Democracy, and Growth [pdf]
Caroline Freund and Mélise Jaud — April 11, 2014
Economic improvements generally accrue to countries that go through regime change, but not always when the change leads to democratization, according to a new study on the relationship between democracy and growth.

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview Storming the Opera House in Ukraine
Anders Aslund — April 11, 2014
Anders Åslund says Russia's ham-fisted tactics to destabilize Ukraine have backfired, and Moscow may now turn to tougher steps, including an invasion, to halt the country's progress.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Time for the United States to Risk Its IMF Veto
Edwin M. Truman — April 11, 2014
Support in the United States for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is at a new low. The reasons are many and varied, and the IMF is unpopular in many countries, not just among the women and men on the streets, most of whom have never heard of the IMF unless their countries are in crisis, b ...

Op-ed The IMF Should Move Ahead without the United States
C. Fred Bergsten and Edwin M. Truman — April 10, 2014
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has its annual spring meetings in Washington this week, is confronting a potentially existential crisis: withdrawal by the United States from active participation in, and leadership of, the world's most important economic institution.

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview The IMF's Existential Crisis
Edwin M. Truman — April 9, 2014
Edwin M. Truman, elaborating on his proposal jointly offered with C. Fred Bergsten, says the International Monetary Fund should walk away from the United States if Congress fails to support its governance and finance reforms.

News Release Peterson Institute Economists Forecast Modest Growth in Major Economies; Identify Ongoing Risks to Financial Stability Limiting Stimulus and Recovery
April 9, 2014
WASHINGTON—Economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics are forecasting a generally favorable outlook for the economic prospects of the United States, Western Europe, Japan, China and some but not all other emerging ma ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Are Countries Better Off with Their Own Monetary Regimes?
Edwin M. Truman — April 7, 2014
The continuing economic and financial challenges facing members of the euro area, combined with more recent pressures on some emerging market and developing countries, raise a familiar question. What is the best monetary regime for countries facing such stresses? The answer is that no monetary re ...

RECENT EVENTS

 

DeLisle Worrell

Macroeconomic Options for Very Small Open Economies

DeLisle Worrell, governor of the Central Bank of Barbados, speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Márcio Cozendey

Brazil in the Global Economy: Where Does This Ship Go?

Brazilian Deputy Minister of Finance Carlos Márcio Cozendey discusses Brazil and its role in the global economy.

Lucio Vinhas de Souza

Stresses and Growth Prospects in Emerging Markets

PIIE and Moody's Investor Service (MIS) held their semiannual joint Sovereign Economic Panel to discuss short-term stresses versus medium-term prospects for key emerging markets.

David Stockton

Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2014

David Stockton, Nicholas Lardy, Ángel Ubide, and Nicolas Véron forecast a generally favorable outlook for the economies of the United States, Western Europe, Japan, and China but also warn there are some risks not widely recognized.

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