The augmented misery index for the second half of 2011 improved dramatically compared with the first half, largely reflecting the sharp decrease in “headline” consumer price index and the biggest increase in housing prices since the end of 2009, write Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Woan Foong Wong. Listen to related interview.
The European Debt Crisis
Europe is well on its way to completing a true economic and monetary union, and will emerge from the crisis much stronger as a result, write C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard. Policy Brief 12-1. Peter Boone and Simon Johnson outline the main problems pushing the euro area towards collapse and suggest potential solutions to stem the growing crisis. Policy Brief 12-4. See also related event.Nicolas Véron takes stock of global efforts towards financial reform since the start of the financial crisis in 2007–08 and provides a synthetic picture of their status as of January 2012. Working Paper 12-2. C. Randall Henning and Martin Kessler outline what the architects of Europe's fiscal union can learn from the history of US fiscal federalism. Working Paper 12-1.
Though policymakers claim to be willing to do whatever it takes to restore stability and save the euro, too often they have in fact been doing whatever it takes to serve the banks, writes Morris Goldstein.
Peterson Perspectives Interviews
Europe vs. the Rest of the World - with Edwin M. Truman | Transcript [pdf]
Making an Example of Greece - with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard | Transcript [pdf]
Greece Back on the Front Burner - with Nicolas Véron | Transcript [pdf]
Energy-exporting countries will experience significant losses if the euro crisis worsens and therefore must work with the IMF and the European Union to rescue the euro, urges Philip K. Verleger, Jr. Policy Brief 11-22.
New Books
- A Decade of Debt
- Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. See also related interview: The Coming "Financial Repression"
- The Global Outlook for Government Debt over the Next 25 Years: Implications for the Economy and Public Policy
- Joseph E. Gagnon with Marc Hinterschweiger
Simon Johnson testifies that if big banks are allowed to gamble with proprietary trading, their losses will ultimately be borne by the American taxpayer.
Sherman Katz and Gary Clyde Hufbauer explore new ideas to break the stalemate after 10 years of ill-fated Doha Round negotiations.
Rather than imposing taxes on foreign corporations, congress should focus on corporate tax reform that puts US companies on the same competitive playing field as their foreign rivals, writes Gary Clyde Hufbauer. Policy Brief 12-3.
The latest semiannual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) by William R. Cline and John Williamson find that modest appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar, combined with higher inflation in China than in the United States, has narrowed the undervaluation of the Chinese currency from 16 percent in April to 11 percent in late October. Policy Brief 11-18. Listen to related interview China's Currency: Modest Appreciation but Still Undervalued.
China
Arvind Subramanian argues that there is a middle path between repelling the capital inherent in Chinese mercantilism and recklessly embracing it as India has chosen. See also China and India: Right Policy, Wrong Place. An initiative which builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system, write Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo. Working Paper 11-22. See also related op-ed Leave China Out of a Trade Pact at Your Peril.New Books
- Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance
- Arvind Subramanian
Peterson Perspectives Interviews
Anders Åslund writes that the Gaidar Forum offers a good overview of Russia's current ongoing economic policy discussion.
- Peterson Perspectives Interviews
Ratcheting Up Economic Pressure on Iran II - with Mohsin S. Khan | Transcript [pdf]
Ratcheting Up Economic Pressure on Iran I - with Jeffrey J. Schott | Transcript [pdf]
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Julia Muir assess whether latest developments in Japan's postal reform legislation represent true reform or will camouflage an entrenchment of Japan Post's formidable monopoly powers. Policy Brief 12-2.
Edwin M. Truman examines three interrelated steps through which the international monetary system [pdf] can and should be improved: surveillance, adjustment and reserve accumulation, and an institutionalized global swap network. See also Policy Brief 11-19.
Recent adjustments to the US regulatory framework, including the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, have not fixed the core problems [pdf] that brought the United States to the brink of complete catastrophe in fall 2008, testifies Simon Johnson.
Edwin M. Truman investigates the purpose of Asian regional policy coordination and whether Asian regional policy coordination will come to replace or complement global policy coordination. Working Paper 11-21.
The main goal of those who wish to democratize Russia should be to break the power of the corrupt elite, writes Anders Åslund.
Edmund Malesky, Dimitar Gueorguiev, and Nathan Jensen show that openness to foreign investment can have differential effects on corruption, even within the same country and under the exact same domestic institutions over time. Working Paper 11-20.
At the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen in 2009 and Cancun in 2010, the United States joined other developed countries in pledging to mobilize $100 billion in funding to help developing countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Trevor Houser and and Jason Selfe argue in Working Paper 11-19 that Washington's best hope is to use limited public funds to leverage private sector investment through bilateral credit agencies and multilateral development banks.
New Book: The Arab Economies in a Changing World, Second Edition
by Marcus Noland and Howard Pack
North Korea in Transition
Marcus Noland discusses the downside risks after the death of Kim Jong-il and suggests that a possible agreement to increase food aid would be appropriate.
Blog
- North Korea: Witness to Transformation
- Blog on developments in and around North Korea, including the broader security setting and political, economic, and social change in the country.
Most viewed pages for the past 7 days.
News Release Michael L. Mussa, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Former IMF Chief Economist, Dies at 67
Katharine Keenan
Policy Brief The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis
C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Event The Euro Crisis
Policy Brief The European Crisis Deepens
Peter Boone and Simon Johnson
RealTime Economic Issues Watch On Greece, Growth, and Downgrades
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
RealTime Economic Issues Watch Mike Mussa (1944–2012): Perceptive Analysis Wrapped in Hum
Arvind Subramanian
RealTime Economic Issues Watch Mike Mussa (1944–2012): When Will They Learn?
Edwin M. Truman
RealTime Economic Issues Watch Mike Mussa (1944–2012): A Brilliant and Beloved Colleague
Steven R. Weisman
RealTime Economic Issues Watch Mike Mussa (1944–2012): Serenading the IMF Board
Mohsin S. Khan
Congressional Testimony Examining the Impact of the Volcker Rule
Simon Johnson
Most recently posted material.
RealTime Economic Issues Watch
Michael Mussa (1944–2012): Integrity, Courage, and a Gift for Friendship
Morris Goldstein — January 27, 2012
I have been a close friend of Michael Mussa for over twenty years. When Mike joined the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as Economic Counselor and Director of Research in 1991, I was his deputy. When I left the Fund in 1994, he and I stayed in frequent contact, including socially. And when M ...
Op-ed
Don’t Give Up on World Trade Talks
Sherman Katz and Gary Clyde Hufbauer
—
January 26, 2012
In December, 154 countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreed they needed "new ideas" to break the stalemate after 10 years of negotiations to lower trade barriers—the ill-starred Doha Development Round. Since presidential election years in the United States and leadership transitions in China are fallow times for new initiatives, 2012 is a good time to think creatively.
China Economic Watch
Chinese Housing Market Correction Update
Nicholas Borst — January 26, 2012
The housing market correction we analyzed in November continues apace, but it appears to still be in the very early stages.
Tightening measures, first implemented in early 2010, are slowly reducing super-elevated levels of housing investment an ...
Op-ed
Heated Open Discussions at the Gaidar Forum
Anders Aslund
—
January 25, 2012
Each year, Moscow hosts a couple of major economic conferences. Yevgeny Yasin will organize one at the Higher School of Economics in early April, and Vladimir Mau organized the Gaidar Forum on January 18 to 21. These events offer a good overview of Russia's economic policy discussion.
Peterson Perspectives Interview
Why Taxing Companies to Discourage Outsourcing Won't Work
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
—
January 25, 2012
Gary Clyde Hufbauer says President Obama's proposal to tax firms that outsource jobs will backfire and compel companies to sell off their foreign operations.
RealTime Economic Issues Watch
Lessons for Europe's Fiscal Union from US Federalism
C. Randall Henning and Martin Kessler — January 25, 2012
The euro area crisis and debate over fiscal reform have led many observers to pray for salvation by a modern, European version of Alexander Hamilton. By this they generally mean someone capable of leading a movement for a robust fiscal union and implementing this vision (see for example McKin ...
Op-ed
Learning from Chinese Mercantilism
Arvind Subramanian
—
January 25, 2012
For almost a decade now, China has followed a mercantilist growth strategy, which has involved maintaining a deliberately cheap exchange rate to boost exports and growth. Crucial to this policy has been China's choice to keep the economy relatively closed to foreign financial flows. Had it not done so, foreign capital chasing the high returns in China would have put upward pressure on the Chinese exchange rate and undercut its ability to export.
News Release
C. Fred Bergsten to Step Down as Director of Peterson Institute for International Economics
January 25, 2012
WASHINGTON—C. Fred Bergsten, founding director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics since its creation in 1981, will step down from that position at the end of this year. The executive committee of the Institute's board of d ...
RealTime Economic Issues Watch
Mike Mussa (1944–2012): An Intellectually Exciting Colleague
Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva — January 24, 2012
I had the chance to meet Mike Mussa personally when I was working at the International Monetary Fund as senior advisor to the Executive Director from Italy in the mid-nineties. His periodic presentations on the world monetary and exchange rate outlook at the board meetings were the most thrilling an ...
Peterson Perspectives Interview
Updated Misery Index: Good News for the White House?
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
—
January 24, 2012
Gary Clyde Hufbauer discusses how the Peterson Institute's augmented misery index of economic indicators shows an improvement in the national outlook.
RealTime Economic Issues Watch
Mike Mussa (1944–2012): A Kind Heart and a Razor Sharp Mind
Martin Neil Baily — January 20, 2012
I had known Mike from professional meetings for a long time, but I really only got to know him well when we both joined the Peterson Institute(or IIE as it was then). As the Institute moved into the new building, Mike and I were two members of the "aging macro group" that lined the back wall o ...
Peterson Perspectives Interview
Europe vs. the Rest of the World
Edwin M. Truman
—
January 20, 2012
Edwin M. Truman explains why the proposal for an IMF bailout fund for Europe has pitted a dithering European leadership against the United States and the rest of the world.
Peterson Perspectives Interview
Making an Example of Greece
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
—
January 19, 2012
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard argues that Greece's balking at reforms sets such a bad example for Europe that contagion from a Greek default might be containable.
Event
The Euro Crisis
C. Fred Bergsten,
Simon Johnson,
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
and Peter Boone
—January 19, 2012
The Peterson Institute hosted a meeting to discuss the euro area crisis on January 19, 2012, releasing two new papers on the topic at that time: a relatively pessimistic analysis by Senior Fellows Peter Boone and Simon Johnson along with a relatively optimistic piece by C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard. The authors presented both viewpoints followed by audience questions.
RealTime Economic Issues Watch
On Greece, Growth, and Downgrades
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — January 18, 2012
Events remain unsettled in the euro area in 2012 in spite of some recent progress toward stabilizing the fiscal and financial outlook. To begin with, negotiations between the Greek government and private creditors represented by the Institute for International Finance (IIF) have been suspen ...











