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Peterson Perspectives Interview Greece's Dilemma and Europe's Anxiety, Part I
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and Arvind Subramanian — May 16, 2012
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard says an exit by Greece from the euro area will be disastrous, but Arvind Subramanian argues that in the medium term Greece will be better off. Tune in Thursday, May 17, for Part II on the impact of the Greece crisis in Europe.

Event The KORUS FTA, Korea's FTA Policy, and the Dynamics of East Asian Economic Integration
Taeho Bark —May 16, 2012
Taeho Bark, Trade Minister of Korea, discussed Korea's free trade agreement (FTA) policy at the Peterson Institute on May 16, 2012. Korea has conducted an effective trade policy over the last decade, negotiating FTAs with its partners from all parts of the world.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The Endgame in Greece—How a Bank Run Can Be Part of the Solution
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — May 16, 2012
Greek politicians have once again let their country down and we are now headed for new Greek elections by mid-June. A highly volatile couple of weeks are in store, since the elections are sure to serve as a referendum on Greek membership of the euro. On one side will be the euro area and the t ...

North Korea: Witness to Transformation Sources: Victor Cha's The Impossible State
Stephan Haggard — May 16, 2012
North Korea generates a lot of books, but a surprising number of them are highly specialized: the nuclear issue; the Kim family; leadership politics; refugees; the famine; propaganda. But for some time, we have lacked a general introduction to the place; indeed, historian Bruce Cumings’ ...

Working Paper 12-8 Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration [pdf]
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland — May 15, 2012
A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country’s foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although the authors cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange.

Policy Brief 12-12 Japan Post: Anti-Reform Law Clouds Japan's Entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership [pdf]
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Julia Muir — May 15, 2012
In 2005, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi pushed his landmark bill through the Japanese Diet, aimed at reforming Japan Post, the giant state-owned enterprise that provides postal services and houses two huge financial arms, Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance. The bill envisaged substantial privatization by 2017. Subsequent Japanese governments have toyed with the idea of reversing the Koizumi law, but in January 2012, it still seemed possible that Diet members would preserve essential features of the Koizumi reforms.

Op-ed Greece's Exit May Become the Euro's Envy
Arvind Subramanian — May 15, 2012
Default will be disastrous for Greece and the resulting contagion would be damaging for Europe. So goes the conventional wisdom. The only debate has been about the strength of contagion and the appropriate response of vulnerable countries and of the check-writing country. Might the debate be misguided because the premise is flawed? Expelled from the euro area, Greece might prove more dangerous to the system than it ever was inside it—by providing a model of successful recovery.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch US Power Sector Meets 2020 Climate Change Target—for a Month
Trevor Houser — May 11, 2012
At the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen in 2009, the United States committed to cut greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020—a target included in cap-and-trade legislation that had passed the House of Representatives earlier that year. With the dea ...

China Economic Watch SOE Dividends and Economic Rebalancing
Nicholas Borst — May 11, 2012
One of the more interesting things to come out of the most recent Strategic and Economic Dialogue was a little more specificity on the topic of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dividend reform. Given the intense disagreements within the Chinese government over this topic, moving forward with reforms i ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Move the Financial Stability Board's Secretariat to Asia
Nicolas Véron — May 10, 2012
On the face of it, the financial crisis of 2007-08 has helped rebalance the governance of global financial authorities, partially correcting the prior underrepresentation of emerging economies and of Asia in particular. From November 2008 to April 2009, when the G-7/G-8 was superseded by the G-20 ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Greece's Election: Tough Choices and a Sense of Déjà vu
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — May 10, 2012
The Greek election on May 6 delivered a result that was only marginally surprising, defeating both "establishment parties," the center-right New Democracy and the Socialists, or PASOK. Together they fell short of a majority, with only 108 seats for New Democracy and 41 for the Socialists, out of ...

Paper Post-2000 Sanctions Episodes [pdf]
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, Kimberly Ann Elliott and Julia Muir — May 8, 2012
Since the third edition of Economic Sanctions Reconsidered was published in 2007, new developments have taken place in several cases, and 17 new sanctions episodes have been initiated. The following table updates table 1A.2 from chapter 1, appendix 1A of Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. The table provides a consolidated summary of all post-2000 sanctions episodes by reporting developments in ongoing cases and providing information on new cases initiated since the 2007 publication.

Peterson Perspectives Interview Elections in Greece, Part II: Will Greeks Also Say 'No' to the Euro Area?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — May 8, 2012
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard says that if Greeks confront the consequences of leaving the euro area, they will very likely balk and accept their bailout terms.

Peterson Perspectives Interview Elections in Greece, Part I: Greek Voters Say 'No' to Their Bailout
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — May 7, 2012
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard suggests that after the principal Greek parties fail to form a governing coalition, new elections will be needed to clear the air.

Peterson Perspectives Interview Elections in France: Major Shifts Unlikely
Nicolas Veron — May 7, 2012
Nicolas Véron argues that François Hollande has no plans and no mandate to shift policies dramatically toward austerity, Germany, or Europe.

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RealTime Economic Issues Watch Greece's Election: Tough Choices and a Sense of Déjà vu
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Are Europeans Turning Against Austerity?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

Event Why the Eurozone Crisis is Not Over

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Why Europe Needs Austerity—It's Not Why You Think
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

RealTime Economic Issues Watch How to Save Corporate Tax Reform: Stop Exaggerating the Revenue Cost
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Why the World Should Care about the European Debate on Bank Capital Requirements
Nicolas Véron

Peterson Perspectives Elections in Greece, Part II: Will Greeks Also Say 'No' to the Euro Area?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

Speech Globalization: The Concept, Causes, and Consequences
John Williamson

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Elections in France: An Eerie Stability
Nicolas Véron

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Move the Financial Stability Board's Secretariat to Asia
Nicolas Véron

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Adam S. Posen, external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, explains why the latest economic data led him to vote for no additional quantitative easing at this time. Successful fiscal consolidations tend to be preceded or accompanied from the start of implementation by greater monetary easing than unsuccessful ones. Policy Brief 12-8 by Tomas Hellebrandt, Adam S. Posen, and Marilyne Tolle.

Will the World Trade Organization enjoy a bright future? Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott say "yes" and present an ambitious idea to break the Doha logjam. Policy Brief 12-11.

Recent legislation rolling back reform of the Japan Post will have serious consequences for Japan's potential participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks. Policy Brief 12-12 by Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Julia Muir.

Peterson Perspectives Interviews

 Toward a European Fiscal Union, Part I

with C. Randall Henning

 Ominous Job Trends in the US Economy

with Howard F. Rosen

 How Imminent is the US Budget and Debt Crisis?

with Simon Johnson

 Argentina Overthrows Conventional Wisdom

with John Williamson

Failure by the G-20 to pass agreed-upon IMF reforms will put the global economy and financial system at risk, warns Edwin M. Truman.

Large net official capital flows from developing economies to industrial economies are causing a serious net drag on demand in the industrial economies and are a major contributing factor to weak recovery in Europe and the United States. Working Paper 12-5 by Joseph E. Gagnon.

As they have before in the aftermath of financial crises or wars, governments and central banks are increasingly resorting to financial repression, writes Carmen M. Reinhart.

The stunning neglect of services in Doha Round talks, given the critical role that they play in advancing economic growth and productivity, clearly points to the need for a new international agreement on services. Policy Brief 12-10 by Gary Clyde Hufbauer, J. Bradford Jensen, and Sherry Stephenson. See also Global Trade in Services: Fear, Facts, and Offshoring and The United States Should Focus on Business Services, Not Manufacturing.

Mexico's recent concession to Brazil to limit its auto exports to that country sends a mixed signal to the markets about Mexico's commitment to international economic terms of engagement, says Barbara Kotschwar.

India's social achievements, viewed in an international context, are not unambiguously deficient; while it rates poorly on child malnutrition, it is surprisingly less unequal than the typical country, finds Arvind Subramanian.

Philip K. Verleger suggests a way to put real pressure on Iran while moderating or eliminating the economic fallout: selling oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Policy Brief 12-6.

With an inadequate transportation and communication infrastructure impeding Latin America's further integration into global trade, the region would do well to draw upon lessons from Asia. Working Paper 12-6 by Barbara Kotschwar.

Rather than imposing taxes on foreign corporations, Congress should focus on corporate tax reform that puts US companies on the same competitive playing field as their foreign rivals, writes Gary Clyde Hufbauer. Policy Brief 12-3.

New Book: The United States Should Establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Russia by Anders Åslund and Gary Clyde Hufbauer

New Book: Who Needs to Open the Capital Account?
by Olivier Jeanne, Arvind Subramanian, and John Williamson

An active protest movement in Russia will likely put pressure on President-elect Putin to follow through on his stated anti-corruption promises and economic policy, observes Anders Åslund. After failing to join major international groups (the G-8, the BRICS, and the G-20), Russia should instead focus on building a closer relationship with the European Union.

Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Julia Muir assess whether latest developments in Japan's postal reform legislation represent true reform or will camouflage an entrenchment of Japan Post's formidable monopoly powers. Policy Brief 12-2.

If the Egyptian presidential election in May fails to engender economic stabilization, the Egyptians’ hard-won political gains may be lost, writes Mohsin S. Khan.

The augmented misery index for the second half of 2011 improved dramatically compared with the first half, largely reflecting the sharp decrease in “headline” consumer price index and the biggest increase in housing prices since the end of 2009, write Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Woan Foong Wong. Listen to related interview.